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Fuzzy Sets in Danger Assessment

#2420


Methodology of Danger Indexes Assessment Based on the Methods of Fuzzy Sets at Handling Hazardous Production Objects

Tech Area / Field

  • ENV-MRA/Modelling and Risk Assessment/Environment

Status
3 Approved without Funding

Registration date
18.02.2002

Leading Institute
VNIIEF, Russia, N. Novgorod reg., Sarov

Supporting institutes

  • A.I. Burnazyan Federal Medical and Biophysical Center, Russia, Moscow\nMIFI, Russia, Moscow

Collaborators

  • Sandia National Laboratories, USA, NM, Albuquerque

Project summary

Nowadays the assessment of danger indexes at handling hazardous production objects (HPO) is realized through the application of probablistic methods and a set of assumptions are made a fortiori rougher in the majority of cases. In addition the assessments of the probability of undesirable events are of low accuracy though much time and means can be spent to get the initial data. One can assess easier the undesirable events at handling HPO at a plant with no increase of assessment errors. This can be done by applying fuzzy sets, fuzzy logic. In this case one can also apply initial data in the form of probablistic assessments of danger obtained basing on a small number of tests and in the form of expert assessments.

The goal of the Project consists in getting the methods of danger indexes and risk assessments using the methods of fuzzy sets.

The main Project tasks are as follows:

1. Description of methods and analysis of probablistic methods applying statistical data with incomplete information.


2. Development of the technique of probabilities assessment by event tree (or fault tree) basing on the method of fuzzy sets.
3. Development of calculation programs realizing probability assessments by event tree (fault tree) basing on the method of fuzzy sets.
4. Development of the technique of getting initial data through the statistical analysis and expert assessments.
5. Consideration of the example of probability assessment of HPO-caused danger revel using the method of fuzzy sets.

The main result of the Project will consist in methodology of danger indexes assessment at handling HPO and in the course of transportation. When realizing this Project the requirements to the methods, possibility of their application, methods of input data description and results application will be discussed and formulated by highly qualified specialists.

To realize the goals of this Project the specialists possessing experience in separate trends of this complex problem will be involved. It is supposed that the problems of danger arising at transporting hazardous cargoes containing HE or radiation-active materials and related issues presenting interest for Power Industries of Russia and other countries including USA and International Ecological Organizations will be considered.

Cooperation with foreign collaborators in the sphere of perfection and coordination of risk analysis methods can considerably assist in successful realization of the Project and high level of science and technology developments.


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