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Bioterrorism Models

#G-902


Optimization of Data on the Population affected by Bio-Terrorism through Modeling

Tech Area / Field

  • BIO-SFS/Biosafety and BioSecurity/Biotechnology
  • BIO-INF/Bioinformatics/Biotechnology

Status
3 Approved without Funding

Registration date
27.06.2002

Leading Institute
Center for Coordination and Implementation of Scientific, Technological and Socio-Economic Projects, Georgia, Tbilisi

Collaborators

  • ARC Seibersdorf Research GmbH, Austria, Seibersdorf\nWichita State University, USA, KS, Wichita

Project summary

Biological weapons have been used for more than 25 centuries. It is considered that Assyrians accomplished the first bio-terrorist act in the VI century BC when they poisoned the wells of their enemies with rye ergot (Claviceps purpurea).
During the Cold War the powerful scientific potential of the world’s leading countries was engaged in the elaboration of bacteriological weapons. It is well known that this represents fast multiplying, highly tolerant strains of microorganisms evoking epidemics (for instance: plague, cholera, anthrax, botulism, tularemia, smallpox etc.) with a massive, fatal effect. Unfortunately, in recent years these dangerous strains & technologies for their breeding have become accessible to terrorists. The spread of anthrax spores by mail immediately after the tragic events of 11 September once more remind us of the threat hanging over Mankind in the face of bio-terrorism. In such a situation much depends on how not only relevant executive bodies but also the population as a whole are organized.
In Georgia, as in other countries of the former Soviet Union, the systems of well-regulated action of the population in extreme situations have either have become outdated or have ceased to function.
Consequently, it raises the need to create new systems of special measures to prepare the population for organized action against bacteriological weapons attacks. In planning these measures the application of mathematical methods will be effective, which, as a final result, implies computer development of an optimal action plan for the population.
Modern science is familiar with analogous developments, which, on the basis of computer analysis of real data, are applied for making optimal decisions in various extreme situations.
The aim of the present project is to create software to develop an optimal action plan for the population in the event of a bacteriological weapons attack by terrorists.
Software must represent the computer analysis of a vast database containing the characteristics of bacteriological weapons, methods of their application, the speed and conditions for the spread of disease from it, geographic & climatic peculiarities of the region, development of infrastructure and existing data on measures for preventing the spread of disease, removing the consequences of bio-terrorism & so on. Software will carry out computer imitation of bio-terrorist acts & will give the following results:
Prognosis of bio-terrorism results (dates of the advent of disease, the most dangerous sources of the spread of disease & so on).
Measures to discover and prevent the spread of disease.
Clear action plan for special executive bodies to remove the consequences of a bioterrorist attack.
Recommendations for population action in the created situation, for observing sanitary-hygienic conditions, rules of behavior, and rapid reaction to the symptoms of disease.
Consequently it is proposed that the following tasks be solved:
1. Development of software
2. Creation of database
3. Modification of developed software for different kinds of bacteriological weapon.
4. Modeling of bio-terrorist acts & creating an optimal action plan for the population in specific situations.
The developed software will be presented to the corresponding bodies of Executive Power of Georgia.


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The International Science and Technology Center (ISTC) is an intergovernmental organization connecting scientists from Kazakhstan, Armenia, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Georgia with their peers and research organizations in the EU, Japan, Republic of Korea, Norway and the United States.

 

ISTC facilitates international science projects and assists the global scientific and business community to source and engage with CIS and Georgian institutes that develop or possess an excellence of scientific know-how.

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