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Seismic Risk Mitigation for Kyrgyz Republic

#KR-707


Seismic Risk Mitigation for the Regional Conditions of Kyrgyz Republic

Tech Area / Field

  • ENV-MRA/Modelling and Risk Assessment/Environment
  • OBS-NAT/Natural Resources and Earth Sciences/Other Basic Sciences
  • OTH-BIT/Building Industry Technology/Other

Status
3 Approved without Funding

Registration date
03.04.2001

Leading Institute
Kyrgyz-Russian Slavonic University, Kyrgyzstan, Bishkek

Collaborators

  • ANPA/Italian Agency for Environment Protection, Italy, Rome\nPittsburgh University / Graduate School of Public and International Affairs, USA, PA, Pittsburgh\nRisk Management Solution, USA, CA, Menlo Park\nEarthquake Engineering Research Institute, USA, CA, Oakland\nOyo Corporation / Oyo Technical Center, Japan, Omiya\nCNRS / IN2P3 / Université Joseph Fourier / Lirigm , France, Grenoble

Project summary

The purpose of the project is the development of methodical bases and practical recommendation for seismic risk mitigation for territory of Kyrgyz Republic with allowance for regional seismological and geological situation, town-planning specifity, features existing buildings and industry.

Every year some strong earthquakes with magnitude M>5 occur in the territory of the Kyrgyz Republic. The most severe impacts for the last decade have been made by Baysoorun (1990, M=6.5), Kochkor-Ata (1992, M=6.3) and Suusamyr (1992, M=7.4) earthquakes. According to the official data just during Suusamyr earthquake more than 8.5 thousands of apartment buildings were damaged. These damages could have been more severe if epicenters of these earthquakes had been in densely populated areas of the country. The analysis of consequences of these earthquakes shows, that the most of existing buildings have received the damage degree two order as much, than the constructive norms supposed. It is stipulated by a number of facts: the constructive scheme of the building, time period of its erection, availability of defects of the current construction normative basis, quality of constructive works, etc.

Seismic hazard on the territory of the Kyrgyz Republic is estimated on Seismic Zoning Maps, where the intensity and maximum magnitudes of possible earthquakes are shown. The maximum amplitudes of acceleration of seismic ground oscillations for certain territories are given there. The seismic risk evaluation of the territory of the Kyrgyz Republic has not carried out earlier.

Within this work the analysis of seismological situation, evaluation of seismological data, analysis of seismic vulnerability of existing buildings built in different periods on the territory of the Kyrgyz Republic, development of main directions of reduction of damage from possible earthquakes have been executed.

The main factors stipulating actuality and practical significance of proposed work are: rather high seismic activity of the territory of the Kyrgyz Republic, rather low level of seismic resistance of existing buildings, necessity of development of measures on decrease of probable damage, further development and shaping of a normative fundamentals of seismic resistant construction on a modern level. As a world practice on prevention of disastrous consequences shows the modern preventive measures could essential reduce the damage from earthquakes. Effectiveness of measures on reducing of probable damage depends on objectivity and correctness of seismic risk evaluation.

The methodical approaches of an evaluation of seismic risk for deficit of an initial seismological information observed for territory of Republic will be offered in work. The special attention will be given to definition determination of a vulnerability of buildings. The cumulative distribution function of buildings damages will be constructed on base of statistical analysis of outcomes of an engineering inspection of existing buildings and generalization of all factors influencing on earthquake resistant.

It is planned to develop following results:

– to develop a regional probability model of seismic effect for earthquake risk assesment, construction of design response spectra and definition of design seismic loads;


– to make an evaluation of influence of the most widespread ground-geological conditions on a degree of buildings and structures damage during earthquakes;
– to construct the catalogue of a vulnerability of the most widespread types of buildings for Kyrgyz Republic;
– to develop a fundamentals of a regional technique of a multifactor evaluation of possible damage by earthquakes;
– to estimate main possible directions of seismic risk mitigation for Kyrgyz Republic.

Work under project include next stages:

– Estimation of Seismic Hazard – analyze of location and the geometry of active faults, regional tectonic setting, estimation of the spatial and temporal characteristics of the seismicity, ration of decay of seismic energy with distance from the point of fault rupture, effect of geologic structure, tectonic setting, databases and magnitude, estimation of seismic shaking parameters.

– Development of seismic regional model – development the seismic influence regional model for a seismic risk evaluation, construction of a cumulative distribution function of seismic ground motions with obtained parameters, forming of a calculated set of earthquake accelerograms, construction of probability response spectra for average ground conditions.

– Soil ground local influence on seismic hazard.

– Evaluation of building vulnerability – development of a technique of building vulnerability assessment with regard for the greatest number of factors for the seismic risk analysis, including local ground geological conditions, detailed engineering inspection of groups of buildings – representatives of the various constructive schemes for deriving of dominating statistic factors, construction of building damages catalogue for different territory of Kyrgyztan and local ground conditions.

– Seismic risk mitigation for Kyrgyz Republic – development of strategy of seismic risk mitigation in Kyrgyztan, improvement of buildings codes and documents for designing and practices, land-use planing and management, recovery, reconstruction and planing, development of recommendations for seismic risk mitigation in Kyrgyztan.

The leading scientific of Republic in the field of seismic risk are involved in the project. They have good contacts to the scientists in other countries and participating in the international projects. Scientists working earlier in the field of arms and defensive industry participate in project.

The outcomes of work will be used for development of the normative and legislative republican documents in the field of construction and mitigation of possible heavy consequences of strong earthquakes, will be a basis for construction of maps of seismic risk with the maximum account of regional features of Kyrgyz Republic and development of building industry. The materials can be applied in similar regional conditions.


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