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Anthrax Forecasting in Kyrgyzstan


Forecasting Anthrax Occurrence in the Areas of Landslide Danger on the Territory of Kyrgyzstan

Tech Area / Field

  • AGR-DIS/Disease Surveillance/Agriculture
  • BIO-SFS/Biosafety and BioSecurity/Biotechnology
  • ENV-EHS/Environmental Health and Safety/Environment
  • MED-DIS/Disease Surveillance/Medicine
  • OBS-GEO/Geology/Other Basic Sciences

3 Approved without Funding

Registration date

Leading Institute
Kyrgyz-Turkish University "Manas", Kyrgyzstan, Bishkek

Supporting institutes

  • National Academy of Sciences of Kyrgyzstan / Biotechnology Institution, Kyrgyzstan, Bishkek


  • Institute Zooprofilattico Sperimentale, Italy, Foggia

Project summary

Project Objective. Anthrax – is a zoonotic bacterial infectious disease having Bac. Anthracis as a pathogen (Cherkasskij B.L., 2002; Mock M., Fouet A., 2001). In comparison with the other zoonotic infections this pathogen has an ability to form stable stationary soil foci (“damned fields”), where Bac. Anthracis can be preserved for dozens of years forming the spores protected from the environmental impact by strong tree layered cover and protective layer. (Brossier F., Levy M., Mock M., 2002; Nusrin S., Khan G.Y., Bhuian N., et al., 2004). If out of a livestock organism a part of the population of Bac.Anthracis ensures the preservation of a pathogen in interepidemic period and facilitates its propagating in the population of a biological host (animal), in a live organism (livestock and humans) in the result of intensive reproduction and relatively low death rate it creates high level of a number of pathogen (microbe) population in nature and ensures the capture of vital spaces. The ability of Bac.Anthracis to circulate in two ecological media (live organisms and soil) provides lasting hazard of occurrence of sporadic anthrax cases. The studies under KR 1101 and KR 1632 ISTC Project “Assessment of Spatial Mechanisms of Pollution of the Territory of Kyrgyzstan by Anthrax Agent” (Zhunushov A.T. and others, 2005-2010) showed that among 1234 registered anthrax foci on the territory of Kyrgyzstan 501 ones were found and introduced in the electronic cadastre and 100 foci occurred in the course of the Project implementation. Due to that according to the supposition of the studies natural disasters 9land-biotic & abiotic) mud flows and mud flow currents facilitate the propagating of anthrax on vast territories which are considered to be free from anthrax.

The Kyrgyz Republic is a mountainous country. Potentially hazardous natural disasters such as quakes, snow slides, landslides, land slips, mudflows occurring in the areas where settlements or sites not free from anthrax can be located is a principle feature of the mountains with relation to geoecology (Ryazantsev S.N., Pavlenko V.F., 1960; Torgoev I.A., 2000; Koshoev M.K., 1996; Messerli B., Ives J., 1998). There is increased natural and anthropogenic changeability of natural processes, vulnerability of Alpine ecosystems which are a consequence of geomechanical instability of mountainsides. Any disturbance of balance of any site of a slope or channel can overbalance natural processes and hence the environment at a long distance downwards the valley with occurrence of cascade effects and catastrophes of regional scale. Last years the steady tendency of warming of a climate was outlined in the Central Asia. Climatic fluctuations cause mode changes of the moisture level of the mountainous areas and as consequence, a sharpening of geological processes such as soil erosion, landslides, mud flow arising and etc. facilitating the developing of hazardous and catastrophic processes. According to the data of Emergency Ministry of the Kyrgyz Republic from 1996-2006 a total number of emergencies caused by dangerous geological processes and phenomena was 939 geocatastrophes, that makes up half of total number of emergencies of natural, man-caused and socio – biological character. Landslides are widely distributed and appear rather frequent in the south regions of Kyrgyzstan in the foothills of Fergana Valley (Torgoev I.A., etc., 1997, 2009; Torgoev I.A., 2000; Havenith H.B., 2001, 2006). Further in many regions of Kyrgyzstan processes of gravitational movement of weight (including landslides) are expected, and they should be forecasted to prevent hazardous consequences and reduce ecological, social and economic loss including risk of anthrax occurrence because according to our studies a great part of natural anthrax sites are located in mud flow danger zones.

Since at anthrax the environment plays a large role in contamination, landslides are of great importance in anthrax occurrence and propagation, because when landslides natural anthrax sites can be revealed and anthrax pathogen will be widely propagated in the environment. In the opinion of V. de Vos (1990), “soil and water are acting only as transportation means for Bac.Anthracis”. However, D. Dragon and R. Rennie (1995) think that water facilitates the concentrating of anthrax spores on certain sites of an area and play great role in disease ecology. Precipitations facilitate the flowing and accumulating of water. Bac.Anthracis spores have high surface hydrophobicity and can move in water current and accumulate in stagnant pool remaining suspended in stagnant water.

Due to the above stated the Project objective is forecasting the risk of anthrax occurrence in land slide danger areas in Kyrgyzstan.

In the result of the Project implementation the following scientific and scientific-practical outcomes will be obtained:

  • Global tendency for research development on diagnosis and immune prophylaxis of anthrax will be elucidated;
  • Novel scientific data on epizootology, epidemiology and geoecology of anthrax in the investigated region of the world;
  • Epidemiological, epizootical and geoecological assessment of land slide danger sites joined (attached) to natural anthrax sites on the territory of the Kyrgyz Republic;
  • “Cadastre of Land Slide Danger Sites with Natural Anthrax Sites in the Kyrgyz Republic” will be created, i.e. synthetic map of geobiological hazard through over layer of two layers: epizootical and epidemiological (on anthrax) and land slide hazard that will be of practical use by corresponding institutions of Kyrgyzstan;
  • Recommendation on scheduling anthrax controlling activities depending on anthrax trouble on the areas with land slide danger will be worked out.

The Project will be implemented by weapon scientists and specialists from the Kyrgyz Republic, who are involved in epizootology and epidemiology of anthrax and geoecology, monitoring and forecasting natural and man-caused catastrophes. The Project will facilitate the reorienting of weapon scientists and specialists on peaceful activities, i.e. on the development of protection technologies of environment, humans, livestock and poultry and on the solution of biosafety issues. This corresponds to the ISTC objectives: “providing the possibilities of peaceful activities for weapon scientists and specialists”.

Within the Project the following work will be implemented:

  1. Collection and comparative assay of the information on natural anthrax sites related to land slide danger zones of Kyrgyzstan which is available at research institutions, sanitary-hygienic and veterinary services in Kyrgyzstan.
  2. Determination of an attachment behavior of natural anthrax sites with land slide danger sites, zoning and classification of the Kyrgyz Republic territory according to anthrax trouble rate in the areas with land slide danger.
  3. Associating the information on locality of natural anthrax sites and land slide danger sites with current administrative-political pision of the Kyrgyz Republic territory. Studying principle morph metric characteristics of land slide danger sites (length, width, power, volume, shape etc.) threatening natural anthrax sites with further determination of land slides’ types and shift stages.
  4. Introduction of the gathered information on natural anthrax sites joined with land slide danger sites in PCs and assay through corresponding programs. Association of territorial distribution of land slide danger sites with natural anthrax sites in the Kyrgyz Republic with the land surface maps focusing on the detection of concentration features of those sites in various regions.
  5. Development of recommendations on scheduling of anthrax controlling activities depending on the level of anthrax trouble in the areas with land slide danger.
  6. Preparation of monograph “Cadastre of Land Slide Danger Sites with Natural Anthrax Sites in the Kyrgyz Republic” for publication.
  7. Submission of the work results to the republican, regional and international scientific community. Final report.

Role of Foreign Collaborators/Partners.

Project Collaborators will be involved in the following activities: methodical audit of the Project; information sharing in the course of the Project implementation; involvement in the implementation of the Project Work Plan; assistance in attending International conferences, seminars; carrying out joint working seminars and conferences.

To gain Project objectives the following scientific methods will be applied: 1) Comprehensive epizootological and epidemiological methods of research ((Dzhupina S.I., Kolosov A.A. Methods of epizootological researches. - Novosibirsk, 1991; Chernova N.E., etc. Medical statistics. - Bishkek, 1999). 2). Geoecological monitoring and forecasting natural and man-caused catastrophes (Torgoev. I.A., 2000). 3) Informational and cartographic method. 4) Method of over layer (application) of locality maps.


The International Science and Technology Center (ISTC) is an intergovernmental organization connecting scientists from Kazakhstan, Armenia, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Georgia with their peers and research organizations in the EU, Japan, Republic of Korea, Norway and the United States.


ISTC facilitates international science projects and assists the global scientific and business community to source and engage with CIS and Georgian institutes that develop or possess an excellence of scientific know-how.

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