Forest Fires Prognosis
Methodology of Forest Fires Prognosis in Khabarovsky Krai, Jewish Autonomous Oblast and Amurskaya Oblast on the Basis of Aero-Synoptical and Satellite Materials
Tech Area / Field
- ENV-MRA/Modelling and Risk Assessment/Environment
- ENV-DMT/Dangerous Materials Transportation /Environment
8 Project completed
Senior Project Manager
Ryzhova T B
Russian Academy of Sciences / Far East Branch of RAS / Institute of Water and Ecology Problems RAS, Far-Eastern Branch, Russia, Khabarovsk reg., Khabarovsk
- Federal Government Institution “Far Eastern Forestry Research Institute”, Russia, Khabarovsk reg., Khabarovsk
- Tohoku University / Center for Northeast Asian Studies, Japan, Sendai
Project summaryProject Goals. The Project is aimed at developing a method for long-term prognosis of big and catastrophic fire dangers in the Jewish Autonomous Oblast, Khabarovsky Krai and Amurskaya Oblast as a part of North East Asia, characterized as highly fire-endangered areas. The final Project goal is warning population and respective organizations about coming dangers and also increasing awareness of those, who are engaged in activities in the forest, transportation of inflammable materials, especially in time of heavy smoke, low visibility in dry and hot weather. A prognostic model will be designed and the Forest Fire Atlas of the described territory will be compiled based on it.
Current Situation in the Research Field. At present estimations based on initial data for 1960-1992 allowed the first check ups of design and application of prognostic regression equations, which show possibility of 1-2 month fire prognosis without monthly weather forecasts. Thus, a technique for a prognosis of forest fires indicators of drought becomes possible and will be based on M.A. Sofronov’s improved computation method (1994), a modern method for forecasting natural phenomena using quantitative characteristics of circulation and a new space-synoptical method, developed by the Project leader G.V. Sokolova.
Project Impact on the Progress in the Research Field. Realization of our experiment will create a precedent proving that increase of population and environment safety is possible. Long-term fire prognosis is especially important for transportation of inflammable materials. In emergency situations, like big fire, coming ecological aspect of inflammables transportation becomes vulnerable not only because of weather conditions (very dry air) but also because of low visibility up to 100 meters in some places as was registered in Chita (2007) and Khabarovsk (1998).
Project Participant Competence in the Research Field. All researchers of IWEP and participation organizations, who take part in the Project, are university graduates (including three candidates of geography) and have wide experience in natural process research and modeling. Their publications and reports at international conferences is an evidence of their competence. Most significant of open publications on the Project topic are listed below.
- Sokolova G.V. Problems of long-term prognosis fire dangers in the forests of Khabarovsky Krai, and Jewish Autonomous Oblast based on meteorological conditions. Khabarovsk: Feb Ras, 2008. 150 p. (Ed. Е.P. Teteryatnikova).
- Sokolova G.V. Monitoring of conditions of geosystems covering the Earth atmosphere in connection with big forest fires in North Asia // Russian northern territories: development problems and perspectives: Proceeding of All-Russia Conf with foreign. Arkhangelsk. June 23-26, 2008 / IEP of the North URB RAS, 2008. P. 1241-1245.
- Sokolova G.V. Forest fire influence on weather. // Proceedings of HEE «Forest Journal». Arkhangelsk: ASTU, 2006. № 6. P. 128-131.
- Sokolova G.V. Climatic vertical of forest canopy in the northern part of coniferous-brad-leaved formation areal // Forestry. 2004. № 4. P. 16-17.
- Sokolova G.V. Assessment and prognosis of fire dangers based on meteorological conditions // Meteorology and Hydrology. 2004. № 12. P. 110-115.
- Brusova Е.V. Forest fire history and fire regimes in the Far East // North East Asia: contribution to the global forest fire cycle. Freiburg: Global Fire Monitoring Center, Khabarovsk: Pacific Forest Forum, 2006. P. 105-135.. (Ed. L.G.Kondrashov and J.G.Goldammer).
- Brusova Е.V. Influence of big forest fires on global climate processes and elements (abstractive review) // Far East forest resources and their use. Proceeding of reg. conf. - Khabarovsk: DalNIILH, 2001. – P. 62-68. (co-author. G.V. Sokolova).
Expected Results and Their Application. When the Project is completed, a stem forward of decisive importance will be made in mitigating negative big and catastrophic fire effects and in developing new technologies of population and environment safety, when inflammable materials are transported. Besides, it will be shown that outdated conclusions, based on outdated information should be revaluated and the existing opinion on possibilities of long-term prognosis of fires based on monthly weather forecasts should be doubted. Monthly weather forecasts can only be used to clarify a long-term forest fires prognosis.
Project Compliance with ISTC Goals. As some specialists in the field of mass destruction weapons take part in the Project and the Project itself has exclusively peaceful purposes that is why it is compliant with ISTC goals. Observations of atmosphere conditions, which will be performed during the Project, will allow getting data on illegal tests of mass destruction weapons, and thus will help to enhance non-proliferation of these weapons. For example, observations of winter atmosphere conditions in North East Asia revealed nuclear tests at Xinjiang testing ground in North China in 1960s. ISTC goals are also followed due to planned extensive involvement of scientists from participating organization and their active sharing of Project information with the global scientific community at international workshops and conferences.
Scope of Activities. The following Project activities are planned.
- Collection, processing and analysis of meteorological (temperature, humidity, precipitation), synoptical (atmosphere circulation parameters) and satellite (fire hot spots, burnt and smoked areas) data for the long period of years.
- Calculation monitoring of forest fires in the studied area for the period 1960-2008 (2009).
- Formation of a data base consisting of 4 main sections such as calculation monitoring; daily and monthly meteorological elements; atmosphere circulation parameters.
- Compilation of the Forest Fire Atlas of the Jewish Autonomous Oblast, Amurskaya Oblast and Khabarovsky Krai, which will include maps of precipitation zones, drought classes, number of forest fires, and other information.
- Design of prognostic models that will enable indication of fields – predictors of meteorological elements in the troposphere and lower stratosphere.
- Studies of Project scientific product market and marketing.
- Annual presenting of Project results to international scientific community.
Role of Foreign Collaborators. A group of researchers from Tohoku University (Japan) led by Dr. Kudoh expressed their wish to take part in this Project. Dr. Kudoh and his laboratory staff study atmosphere aerosols, including smoke that come to Japan from the continent, where fire are quite often. Dr. Kudoh’s group is ready to exchange information they have in order to practically test a number of their theoretical concepts in real condition of the scientific climatic IWEP test ground. A letter of our collaborator from Japan is addressed to the ISTC and is attached to the Project proposal.
Technical Approaches and Methodology. Project novelty is the use of aero-synoptic and satellite images for a special region dated since 1960. Observations of atmosphere conditions in anticyclone fields, for instance, the intensity of Asian (Siberian) anticyclone, will in future allow timely and inexpensive registering of illegal testing of mass destruction weapons, thus becoming a unique weapon non-proliferation method. The introduced method of long-term prognosis of big and catastrophic fires in the Jewish Autonomous Oblast, Amurskaya Oblast and Khabarovsky Krai can be considered a new technology of population safety in these areas. Fire prevention measures for forest fire services, population safety and inflammables transportation safety will be planned.
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