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Prediction of Catastrophic Earthquakes


Project of System of Operative Prediction of Catastrophic Earthquakes Elaboration.

Tech Area / Field

  • ENV-SEM/Seismic Monitoring/Environment

3 Approved without Funding

Registration date

Leading Institute
Association "Academia", Russia, Moscow

Supporting institutes

  • NPO Vacuummashpribor, Russia, Moscow\nNPO Energia, Russia, Moscow reg., Korolev


  • Universita di Bologna / Centro di Studio per l'Infornmatica e i Sistemi di Telecomunicazioni, Italy, Bologna\nFailure Analysis Association, USA, CA, Menlo Park

Project summary

The basic ideas of the method had been earlier tested at the Tadjik polygon in the years 1976-1978 and proved to be rather effective. Ten of eleven earthquakes in the test area had been predicted by the system. The one, missed, was rather weak(M<3).

The proposed test system will be set up in Califomia(US). Its design requires rather intensive geologic investigations at the site of the system deployment and will be carried out by the project team. The purpose of the investigations is to select sensitive forerunners(signals) of the earthquakes in the area and work out the plan for a distributed net of stations for observation of the environmental . The information from the measurement devices will be transmitted to the central data analysis system. The authors propose both ground and satellite based options of the data analysis systems.

Scientific basics of the proposed method have been presented at the meeting with the specialists at the University of California of USA in summer of 1994.Expected Results: On termination of the project a design of the proposed system for predictions of strong earthquakes in California site will be prepared. The prototype system will be manufactured and tested in the field. An efficiency of the system with a set of sensitive signals selected for generation of earthquake alarm in California will be preliminarily estimated following the observations carried out for some period of time at the selected site.

Technical Approach and Methodology: The proposed method assumes a continuous monitoring of the selected set of signals from environment using measurement equipment distributed over tested seismic area. The most effective signals for monitoring have to be selected during a preliminary geochemical studies of the site.

Possible Role of Foreign Partners: Participation in the discussions of the proposed system for the earthquake predictions, field investigations of a site for the system deployment and test runs of the proposed design of the system for earthquake predictions at the selected site in California.


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