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Risk Assessment Methodology


Elaboration of Risk Assessment Methodology both for Complex Technology Systems (of Hazardous Objects) with Radiation-toxic and Explosive Materials

Tech Area / Field

  • ENV-MRA/Modelling and Risk Assessment/Environment

8 Project completed

Registration date

Completion date

Senior Project Manager
Ryabeva E V

Leading Institute
VNIIEF, Russia, N. Novgorod reg., Sarov

Project summary

Goal, technical approach and expected results of the project:

Hazard of technology systems is the inherent property of objects which is often not known to the society and, thus causes its alarm. Having defined quantitatively and qualitatively the safety indices, we decrease the doubts of mankind, and make it possible to take justified precautions; we can reliably compare the objects by hazard degree. To solve this problem which turns out to be one of the most difficult problems of mankind, it is proposed to develop with the use of probabilistic-statistical methods such calculation techniques which allow to employ the results of single experiments, to give quantitative values of risk to die or to suffer increased detriment in case of accident.


- Development of models of accidents with hazardous production objects (HPO), containing EM and RM and requirements to them;
- Development of criteria of HPO risk for society - of social and technology character;
- Development of methods and technique of risk assessment for high-energy technology systems, containing radiation-toxic or (and) explosive materials, at the stage of production, transportation and utilization.

Technical approach and methodology of the work includes the carrying out of theoretical probabilistic-statistical investigations, the analysis of literary data on behavior of hazardous production objects at different stages of life period and the probabilistic-statistical analysis of rare events by single tests (manifestations).

- The work will result in the assessment technique of safety indices of hazardous production objects containing radiation-toxic or (and) explosive materials.

Role of foreign collaborators

The potential role of foreign collaborators may consist:

- in the development (joint with VNIIEF) of risk assessment methods for hazardous production objects,
- in predicting the risk of hazardous production objects, containing radiation-toxic or (and) explosive materials.


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