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Catastrophic Geophysical Phenomena

#G-569


Study of Catastrophic Geophysical Phenomena-Investigation of Precursors, Endogenous and Exogenous Triggering Factors of Earthquakes of the Seismoactive Region of the Caucasus

Tech Area / Field

  • OBS-GEO/Geology/Other Basic Sciences
  • OBS-NAT/Natural Resources and Earth Sciences/Other Basic Sciences

Status
3 Approved without Funding

Registration date
08.08.2000

Leading Institute
Tbilisi State University, Georgia, Tbilisi

Project summary

The objects of the project:

– exposure of efficient precursors of large earthquakes of Caucasus on the grounds of study of retrospective data of the existing geophysical fields;


– study of possible links between earthquakes realized by the waves of stress transfere and evaluation of characteristics of these waves;
– search and determination of the influence of exogenous initiator factors on earthquakes;
– study of applicability of fuzzy technology of calculation for estimation of forecasting the earthquakes;
– investigation of periodical orders of earthquakes of the Caucasus by the method of non-linear dynamics.

Urgency of the problem:

In the history of humanity earthquake was and is still considered as the greatest natural calamity. It brings non-compensated damage to the population, carrying away it millions of human lives. Leading researchers of various specialties, working in the sphere of science on Earth, always considered that the first-order task is the solution of the problem of forecasting geographical location of a future earthquake, time of its occurrence and dimension of its energy.

Rather interesting idea has cropped up in recent years about the possibility of gradual release of seismic energy by the use of different methods (through pumping of water, underground nuclear explosions etc). If one manages to elaborate such a means of controlling earthquakes, human losses would be completely avoided, since the population will be able to get prepared for the time of artificially induced earthquake will be known in advance. Therefore, it would be better to induce the earthquake by this method, than wait till it occurs naturally.

But the realization of the above given idea is only available on the stage of the development of seismology and the stage of studies in the field of physics of the Earth at large, when not only the precursors but also triggering factors of earthquake would be studied at a rather high level in order to define their simultaneous action on tectonic tensions in the seismically active region.

Due to multiple factors participating in triggering earthquakes, special approach is needed for the solution of the problem: first we must receive independent geophysical data, and then use them on certain final stage for the assessment of real seismic situation of the given region.

Significance of the solution of the given problem is clear and therefore the tasks of exposure of precursors and triggering factors of earthquakes are urgent. Since the Caucasus is one of the seismically active regions of the earth, the above given problem acquires vital scientific and practical significance.

The novelty, characteristic to the project is a study to be carried out on waves of stress transfere for the exposure of possible relation between earthquakes, study of parameters of those waves with the view of determining their triggering capacity, which is of great importance, for it enables one to calculate the location of waves of stress transfere for the years to come, in advance, and thus to follow the shifting of seismically dangerous zone in the region.

Study of the possible triggering effect of solar and lunar gravitation perturbation will enable one to estimate the possibility of occurrence of large earthquakes.

Consideration of the role of endogenous and exogenous factors jointly in triggering of earthquakes will enable us in future make certain important prognostic conclusions.

Likewise, exposure of forms of precursors for seismoactive region of the Caucasus will favor systematic observation, which in its turn is significant for seismic control in the region at large.

Data analysis by the method of non-linear dynamics will be given for the first time.

Practical significance.

Methods for the exposure of precursors and triggering factors, elaborated on the grounds of retrospective data of the region of Caucasus together with other geophysical data, might be used for prediction of earthquakes in any seismically active region of the world.

It is known that different types of precursors are inherent to different seismically active zones, more than several dozens of them were registered. On the Caucasus, due to objective reasons, special system of their controlling never existed.

According to the data of the offered Project certain types of precursors will be specified for the seismically active region of the Caucasus and the recommendations will be elaborated in case of availability of devices of observation system.

The project is of great significance not only from scientific and economic points of view and that it complies with the objects and goals of International Scientific Technical Center (ISTC), but it has also great significance of human nature, for refuges from Abkhazia, who few years ago, during Georgian-Abkahzian war were left without shelter and were deprived of possibility to work and live with sanguineous life. Participation in International projects according to their specialty is a great moral and economic support for them.

Ecological significance.

It is well known that every earthquake destroys ecological equilibrium of the region, since during earthquakes the objects of great importance such as mines, HPS-s, water reservoirs, atomic power stations etc can be ruined. Such damages may result in ecological catastrophes for many years to come. Since there are many such vital objects in the Caucasus and there is a functioning APS, study of precursors and triggering factors of earthquakes plays a role of specific significance. Hence the difficulty of economical assessment of the immense usefulness to be contributed by any scientific researches in the sphere of study of earthquakes.


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The International Science and Technology Center (ISTC) is an intergovernmental organization connecting scientists from Kazakhstan, Armenia, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Georgia with their peers and research organizations in the EU, Japan, Republic of Korea, Norway and the United States.

 

ISTC facilitates international science projects and assists the global scientific and business community to source and engage with CIS and Georgian institutes that develop or possess an excellence of scientific know-how.

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