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Tropical Hurricanes Beginning

#3827


Elaboration of Technologies for Diagnosis of Tropical Hurricanes Beginning in Oceans with Remote Sensing Methods

Tech Area / Field

  • PHY-RAW/Radiofrequency Waves/Physics
  • ENV-MIN/Monitoring and Instrumentation/Environment
  • SAT-OTH/Other/Space, Aircraft and Surface Transportation

Status
8 Project completed

Registration date
08.10.2007

Completion date
13.08.2012

Senior Project Manager
Rudneva V Ya

Leading Institute
Russian Academy of Sciences / Institute of Radioengineering and Electronics / Fryazino Branch, Russia, Moscow reg., Fryazino

Collaborators

  • Polytechnic University of Catalonia, Spain, Barcelona\nUniversità di Roma "La Sapienza" / Dipartimento di Ingegneria Elettronica, Italy, Rome\nUniversity of Athens, Greece, Athens

Project summary

Tropical hurricanes are the phenomena with a synoptic life time, which are appeared as a result of air-sea interaction and some other factors (including, possibly, a state of the Earth crust). There are a lot of scientific projects and programs devoted to study of the forming and evolution of the tropical hurricanes; however, the main problem of their early disclosing (when the apparent signs of their beginning are absent) does not accomplished yet. When dealing with this problem we emphasize an importance of using the radiophysical means and methods of remote sensing and, especially, the satellite microwave radiometric methods of studying zones of the tropical hurricane forming.

The following reasons for statement and solving the project tasks are exists:

  1. Tropical hurricanes (typhoons) cause severe damage to economics of many Earth regions (Far East of Russia, Pacific, and North America) and result in human sacrifices. Development of satellite and other methods of regular analysis of the factors exciting the tropical hurricanes and their development at the early stages will let us, in perspective, to use the vast energy potential of this danger and periodically recurred nature phenomenon and to turn it to advantage of inhabitants of the surrounding areas.
  2. The satellite radiophysical methods serve as the important tool of analysis of the affecting on energetic processes in ocean-atmosphere system such its oceanographic and meteorological parameters as the water surface temperature, wind speed, total water vapor content of the atmosphere, integral content of liquid water in clouds, intensity of precipitations as well as the vertical turbulent fluxes of heat, water and impulse which are important in studies of cyclonic areas of the ocean. A knowledge of these parameters let us to solve formulated in the project tasks related to premises of the tropical hurricane origin and their early development.
  3. Participants of the project are the leading specialists in the field of using the radiophysical remote and direct (from board of ship) means for determination of these parameters. Revealed with these means regularities of forming the interrelations between a natural microwave radiation of the ocean-atmosphere system and an intensity of vertical heat and moisture transfer and the atmospheric horizontal circulation in the areas of influence of mid- and high latitude cyclones can be used in studies of the tropical hurricanes.

The main aim of the project is elaboration of technologies for diagnosis of the tropical hurricanes beginning in those oceanic areas, where the tropical hurricanes are observed most frequently, basing on the data of monitoring from DMSP satellites (radiometer SSM/I, Atmospheric Water Vapor (SSM/T-1) and Temperature (SSM/T-2) Profilers), from satellites METEOR 3M ¹1 (radiometer MTVZA) and EOS Aqua (radiometer AMSR-E) as well as from measurements from vessels and buoys and the data of mathematical modeling of the ocean-atmosphere system parameters.

The substantial theoretical objective of the work is a search of effects or regularities, which could explain the conditions when an origin of the tropical hurricane becomes inevitable. In accordance with the known in this field data (journal publications, monographs, INTERNET-data) the information on formulation and solving such kind of the problems is lacking though there are a lot of researches of characteristics of originated tropical hurricane - an analysis of their intensity and dynamics, forecast their progress, prediction of the trajectories and life time, etc.

The main idea of the project is: a) a search of initial sources exciting activity of geochemical, biophysical factors in the ocean column and its floor, which are inaccessible for direct vision by radiophysical means of remote sensing; b) an analysis of intermediate bonds these factors with oceanographic parameters of the oceanic surface (first of all, with its temperature) and meteorological parameters of the atmosphere; c) an analysis of the processes at the ocean-atmosphere boundary related to its heat and dynamic interaction characterized by vertical turbulent fluxes of sensible, concealed (latent) heat and impulse (momentum) as well as to horizontal (circulation) movements in the atmosphere; d) an analysis of direct and indirect bonds these geophysical characteristics with an intensity of natural microwave radiation of the ocean-atmosphere system (the brightness temperature) in the range of millimeter and centimeter wavelengths traditionally used in modern meteorological and oceanological satellites. In this way we suppose to study the bound between links of the chain “original (initial) events in the system ocean-boundary layer of the ocean and atmosphere-atmosphere-brightness temperature measured from satellites” in areas of the tropical hurricane origin taking into account an experience of such studies in zones of performance of midlatitude cyclones in the North Atlantic.

In the frame of the project we are planning to solve the following tasks:

  1. Analysis of possibilities of using the modern satellite radiophysical and contact (in situ) instrumentation in geophysical (oceanographic, meteorological, geochemical, biophysical, other) observations of the ocean-atmosphere system characteristics for control its state changes in zones of the tropical hurricanes beginning.
  2. Development of models of the ocean-atmosphere system behavior over various stages of the tropical hurricanes origin with use of a complex parametrization of microwave radiative and geophysical characteristics of the system.
  3. Physical (laboratory) experiment for analysis of sensitivity of microwave radiometric methods to water surface and atmosphere parameters in the range of their variations peculiar in zones of the tropical hurricanes origin.
  4. Search of quantitative indicators of the ocean-atmosphere system state as the precursors of the tropical hurricanes beginning.
  5. Elaboration of satellite microwave radiometric methods for monitoring the ocean in zones of their most probable beginning with the purpose of their early detection.

Leading participants Grankov A.G., Krapivin V.F., Shutko A.M., Mil`shin A.A., Zagorin G.K., Gulev S.K., Cherny I.V., Sharkov E.A., et al. have of many years experience of theoretical and experimental studies of the ocean and atmosphere. Results of their scientific activity in this field have been published in monographs and in numerous papers, which are well-known in Russia and abroad.

The Project gives the participants a capability to conduct effective research and development activities in this important and widely requested area of the World ocean exploration. Participation in this Project of foreign scientists as Project collaborators is expected. This will provide a unique opportunity for all participants to make international scientific contacts that will work beneficially towards integration on a multinational level into one of the most important fields of science and technology. The basic Project task is related to the area of human activity called “Developing Facilities/Means for Observation/Monitoring and Control of the Environment”. This is one of the main goals of the ISTC activity.

Collaboration with foreign participants will include information and data exchange; preparation of joint publications, review papers; participation in joint experiments, meetings, seminars, etc.

The timetable looks like the following:

- first 6 months:

  1. systematization and generalization of known archive data on the ocean-atmosphere system characteristics in zones of the tropical hurricanes origin over different stages;
  2. analysis of possibilities of using existent remote (satellite) and direct (contact) means of observation of the oceanographic, meteorological, geochemical, biophysical, other characteristics of the ocean-atmosphere system for control of its state changes in zones of the tropical hurricanes beginning.

- following 18 months:
  1. development of the model of the ocean-atmosphere system behavior over various stages of the tropical hurricanes forming with use of parametrization of microwave radiative and geophysical characteristics of the system, elaboration of algorithms of the model parameters with the data of satellite and contact measurements;
  2. comparing the results of modeling the processes of the tropical hurricanes beginning with the data of satellite measurements;
  3. search of quantitative indicators (precursors) ensuring most high probability disclosing the prime signs of the tropical hurricanes beginning; reveal of necessary and sufficient conditions of the tropical hurricane origin.

- last 12 months:
  1. physical (laboratory) experiment for analysis of sensitivity of microwave radiometric methods to water surface and atmosphere parameters in the range of their variations peculiar in zones of the tropical hurricanes origin;
  2. elaboration of satellite microwave radiometric methods for monitoring the World ocean waters in zones of their most probable beginning with the purpose of their early disclosing;
  3. working out of recommendations for advancing of the monitoring system of zones of the tropical hurricanes forming and estimating a significance of information derived from functioning satellite- and earth-based systems facilities.


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