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Biolocomplexity of the Okhotsk Sea Ecosystem

#4048


Elaboration of New Technologies for the Diagnostics of the Okhotsk Sea Ecosystem Biocomplexity

Tech Area / Field

  • ENV-MIN/Monitoring and Instrumentation/Environment
  • ENV-OTH/Other/Environment
  • ENV-WPC/Water Pollution and Control/Environment
  • OBS-NAT/Natural Resources and Earth Sciences/Other Basic Sciences
  • PHY-OPL/Optics and Lasers/Physics

Status
3 Approved without Funding

Registration date
24.03.2010

Leading Institute
Russian Academy of Sciences / Institute of Radioengineering and Electronics / Fryazino Branch, Russia, Moscow reg., Fryazino

Collaborators

  • The Okhotsk Sea & Cold Ocean Research Association, Japan, Mombetsu\nUniversity of Tokyo, Japan, Tokyo

Project summary

The formation of biocomplexity of the Okhotsk Sea ecosystem due to the existing knowledges about regularities of its subsystems functioning taking into account of spatial and biological levels of their organization will be studied within the framework of the given project. The simulation model of ecosystem functioning under conditions of the Arctic climate will be created. On the base of this model, the stress situations that can arise on account of natural or anthropogenic reasons will be studied. Characteristics of a survivability of an ecosystem and its components will be defined, and as well as the permissible levels of anthropogenic impact will be determine. An account of a human factor and influence of global changes on the Okhotsk Sea ecosystem will be realized by means of global model of the "biosphere - society" system that was developed by the authors of the given project.

To formalize the description of biocomplexity, the integral index of ecosystem state as the biocomplexity indicator will be introduced that allows to characterize the level of correlation between the Okhotsk Sea subsystems and to introduce the quantitative scale of biocomplexity, what provides the new level of analysis of biological, chemical and physical processes of the interaction between the ecosystem elements.

New information technologies of diagnostics of the Okhotsk Sea ecosystem state will be elaborated as final result of this project what will create conditions for making such decisions on a regional and international levels that will provide with a defense of the unique region from undesirable changes.

The purpose of the project consists in the development of new constructive informational technologies based on evolutionary and simulation modeling and providing with the high level of reliability when assessment of regularities of change in the Okhotsk Sea ecosystem trophic pyramid as function of global climate changes and of regional processes of anthropogenic influence on its elements is realized.

The Project leading scientists V.F. Krapivin, F.A. Mkrtchyan, and V.V. Klimov and others have experience in theoretical and experimental investigations in the field of new information technologies and mathematical modeling for an ecological monitoring of the aquatic environments. The results of their scientific activities in this field have been published in numerous monographs and papers and are widely known in Russia and abroad.

The basic expected results of work:

  • From the scientific point of view:
    1. Comparison of existing models of the Okhotsk Sea ecosystem functioning to analyze the efficiency of the methods used for their synthesis and under the parametrization of biological, geophysical and hydrological processes and to detect the typical peculiarities of their structural closure to the global databases and to the possibilities of the satellite monitoring will be conducted. Such analysis will permit to select ecosystem model structure, which will minimize information requirements to the monitoring system of the Okhotsk Sea.
    2. An efficiency of the method for evolutionary modeling under description of the poorly structured processes and ones, having insurmountable informational restriction of the processes that is necessary to take into consideration under the synthesis of the Okhotsk Sea ecosystem model will be evaluated
    3. A set of space and subject identifiers that will provide universalization for procedures of structural and parametrical adaptation of the model completely or its separate parts to the external informational field will be elaborated.
    4. The new technology of an interactive analysis of biological, chemical and geophysical regulation mechanisms of processes of energy and substance transport that uses evolutional mechanisms of parametrical and structural adaptation of the model to the already created databases will be worked out. The novelty of the technology is that, at the expense of step-by-step adaptation of separate blocks of the model to the having data about parameters of object of modeling their self-descriptiveness is increasing and requirements to the following measurements are decreasing.
    5. The simulation system of reconstruction of ice fields in the Okhotsk Sea with their prognosis within the framework of a priori climatic scenarios will be prepared. For the first time, estimations of distribution of an ice in the Okhotsk Sea within the framework of the most developed climatic scenarios will be obtained.
  • From the practical and commercial point of view:
    1. Recommendations on organization of geoinformation monitoring of offshore water of the Okhotsk Sea aquatory providing reliable estimation of distribution of biological resources will be given.
    2. Recommendations on planning of measurements of geophysical and meteorological parameters by the Hokkaido meteorological service as the input information for the model of ice formation process on the whole Okhotsk Sea aquatory.
    3. The technique with corresponding algorithmic software for determination of the physical parameters of an ice cover by means of the measurements of the radiobrightness contrasts in the microwave range of electromagnetic spectrum of wave will be prepared. The technique will include a number of the new algorithms for the solution of radiometric problems and space-temporal interpolation of the satellite measurements.
The Project gives the participants an opportunity to conduct effective research and development activities in this important and widely requested area of the Earth exploration. Participation of foreign scientists as Project collaborators is expected. This will provide a unique opportunity for all participants to establish international scientific contacts that will work beneficially towards integration on a multinational level in one of the most important fields of science and technology. The basic task of the Project is related to the human activity area, called “Development Facilities / Means for Observation / Monitoring and Control of the Environment”. This is one of the main goals of the ISTC activity.

The expected duration of Project is 36 months. The timetable looks like the following:

First 6 months:

  1. Generalization and systematization of available theoretical and experimental data on the Okhotsk Sea.
  2. Forming database and knowledge base oriented to the use of simulation modeling procedures in interactive regime.

Next 24 months:
  1. The creation of the software complex with technology of joint use of models, algorithms and the aerospace data.
  2. Synthesis of the model of the Okhotsk Sea ecosystem permits to obtain the prognosis estimation of the ecosystem state depending on global and regional changes of the environment.
  3. Search for regularities of dynamics of the trophical pyramid of the Okhotsk Sea ecosystem.
  4. Assessment of changes in the Okhotsk Sea ecosystem due to external impacts.
  5. Calculation of biocomplexity of the Okhotsk Sea ecosystem as a function of the environment characteristics.

Last 6 months:
  1. Realization of a series of simulation experiments for the prediction estimation of the Okhotsk Sea state with the use of the adaptive evolution and technology of geoecological information-modeling systems (GIMS-technology) to calculate indicators of their effectiveness.
  2. Generalization of the obtained results and elaboration of the recommendations for their use.

Collaboration with foreign participants will include the following directions:
  • Exchange of scientific information and data, preparation of joint science-technical reviews on the Project subjects.
  • Comments of the collaborators on the reports submitted to the ISTC.
  • Joint discussion of results obtained at the Project stages.
  • Organization of joint workshops for the discussion of the Project results to correct the developed methods and algorithms.


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