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Mathematical Models of Infection Deceases Epidemics

#3817


Development of Theoretical Basis for Mathematical and Computer Modeling of Infection Deceases Epidemics of Natural and Antropogenious Character

Tech Area / Field

  • BIO-INF/Bioinformatics/Biotechnology
  • MED-DIS/Disease Surveillance/Medicine
  • ENV-MRA/Modelling and Risk Assessment/Environment

Status
3 Approved without Funding

Registration date
03.09.2007

Leading Institute
Gamalei Institute of Epidemiology and Microbiology, Russia, Moscow

Supporting institutes

  • Committee of Scientists for Global Security and Arms Control, Russia, Moscow

Collaborators

  • Robert Koch-Institut, Germany, Berlin

Project summary

Researches under the project are important for fundamental science since they develop system and quantitative approaches in studying and forecasting of epidemics of dangerous infectious diseases, form prognostic estimations of key conditions, parameters and functions collective infectious (pathological) process, which develops among a large number of people during infecting by dangerous pathogens. Researches under the project will allow gaining new theoretical knowledge and important prognostic information about a level of disease and death rate among the population in large cities from outbreaks and epidemics of dangerous infectious diseases, which are developed at local, regional and global levels.

Undoubtedly, that this area of research has special theoretical and applied value for studying and forecasting of the epidemics both natural and anthropogenous character. Proposed researches under the project will make the essential contribution to scientific researches on search and realizations of rational strategy and countermeasures against epidemics and dangerous infectious diseases outbreaks among the susceptible population taking into account the variability of inpidual characteristics of people, dozes of infection and other parameters in development of the incubatory and infectious periods of illness.

The mathematical models of epidemics and infectious diseases outbreaks can be used for the estimation and the forecast of epidemiological (biological) safety level of the population from dangerous pathogens in large cities of the country or groups of countries (at local, regional and global levels). The results of research works (mathematical models of epidemics in large cities of the country or groups of the countries) have theoretical and practical interest for specialists and experts who are dealing with the problems of protection of the population from dangerous infectious diseases, as well as for local and state healthcare authorities.

In particular, the prognostic estimations for a level of the population protection from large-scale Bird flu A(H5N1) epidemics (pandemic), social and economic losses in large cities of Europe, the USA and Canada is possible at realization of various countermeasures strategy. The prognostic and analytical information resulted from different scenarios of occurrence, spread and counteraction to epidemics of pathogenic Bird Flu A(H5N1) in large cities of one country or group of the countries can provide the essential help in decision making process on formation of adequate stocks of diagnostics means, emergency preventive prophylactics, anti-virus therapy of infected patients with the purpose of maintenance of a high level of biological protection of the population from this new dangerous pathogen.

Thus, the project will represent significant interest for scientific and educational institutions of many countries of the world, which are dealing with problems of protection of the population from the dangerous infections deceases outbreaks and epidemics both natural and anthropogenous character.

Basis for successful performance of the project is the high professional and scientific level of the project leader, the epidemiologists, specialists in informatics and statistics, programmers, and also 20-years practical experience in the field of development and applications of mathematical models (computer programs) for the operative analysis and the forecast of epidemics of significant virus and bacterial infectious diseases.

The project leader Prof. Boris Boev is a Doctor in Engineering Sciences and Doctor of Epidemiology. His dissertation and research work are devoted to theoretical computer science and epidemiology. His scientific results are well-known to the Russian and international scientific community since during many years he is the recognized leader in research on epidemiological cybernetics in Russia.

The project leader is an active member of the Russian Society of Epidemiologists and Microbiologists, member of the Committee of Scientists for Global Security and Arms Control.

Pledge of successful performance of the project is also high qualification of other participants of the project in the area of epidemiology, microbiology, applied mathematics and computer science. The project team include: 2 doctors of sciences (epidemiologist and microbiologist), one manager of project, one candidate of medical sciences (epidemiologist), one mathematician, 2 engineers-programmers, one system analyst-integrator, one analyst, 2 IT engineers, one translator for collection, analysis and translation of working and information materials of the project.

The most significant publications of the Project Head:

  1. Boev B.V. «Present stage's of mathematical modeling developments and distribution of infectious diseases». In the collection Epidemiological cybernetics: models, the information, experiments, Gamaleya Institute epidemiology and microbiology ASM USSR, М., 1991;. p. 6-14.
  2. Boev B.V., Prokopieva N.V. «Computer system for realization the mathematical models distribution of infectious diseases». In the collection «Epidemiological cybernetics: models, the information, experiments », Institute Gamaleya AMS USSR, М., 1991;. p. 175-186.
  3. Boev B.V., Bondarenko V.M. «Epidemiological aspects of bioterrorism». The bulletin of the Russian Academy of Natural Sciences, 2001;. V, 1. ¹2. p 16-22.
  4. Boev B.V., Bondarenko V.M., Vorobjev A.A., Makarov V.V. «Problem of protection against acts of bioterrorism in modern conditions». Agrarian Russia, Magazine of the Russian Academy of Natural Sciences, 2002;. ¹2. p 166-175.
  5. Vorobjev A.A., Boev B.V., Bondarenko V.M., Gintsburg A.L. «Problem of bioterrorism in modern conditions». Magazine of Microbiology, Epidemiology and Immunology, М., 2002; ¹3. p 3-12.
  6. Boev B.V., Bondarenko V.M. «Prognostication model for studying outbreak SARS». The bulletin of the Russian Academy of Natural Sciences, М., 2003;. V 3.¹1. p.27-33.
  7. B.V. Boev «Future's epidemics». Reports of the Methodological seminar of Physical Institute of the Russian Academy of Science, М., 2003; FIRAS, Release 12. p. 17-59.
  8. Makarov V.V., Vorobjev A.A., Boev B.V., Bondarenko V.M. «High pathogenic flu of birds and epidemics a flu». Magazine the Veterinary pathology. М., 2004. N3 (10). p. 45-51.
  9. Boev B.V., Makarov V.V. «Geo-information systems and epidemics a flu», Magazine the Veterinary pathology. М., 2004; N3 (10);. p. 51-59.
  10. Boev B.V. «Prognostication model of development the epidemic SARS». Magazine the Veterinary pathology. М., 2004; N3 (10). p. 59-66.
  11. Boev B.V., Gulenkin V.M. «FMD: system of models and computer programs for the operative analysis and the forecast epizootics». Magazine the Veterinary pathology. М., 2004; N4 (11). p.73-84.
  12. Gintsburg A.L., Boev B.V. «Computer modeling of epidemics». Magazine «The Science in Russia » the Russian Academy of Science, М., 2005; ¹5. p.52-57.
  13. Boev B.V., Semenov A.V. «Application of computer technologies for forecasting consequences of development extreme situation character with dangerous pathogens». In the collection «Problems of forecasting of extreme situations, V scientific - practical conference. On November, 15-16, 2005 » М., 2005;. p. 146-155.
  14. Boev B.V. «Computer technologies for study, forecasting, and management the mass panic caused by the infection diseases outbreaks». In the collection “Preventing bioterrorism”, Interpol Asian regional workshop on preventing bioterrorism), Singapore, 27-29 March, 2006.
  15. Jastrebov V.S., Boev B.V. «Forecasting's of outbreaks PTDS (posttraumatic diseases stressful) frustration after scale acts of terrorism». Magazine of neurology and psychiatry, М., 2007; v. 107. ¹5. p. 43-49.
  16. Boev B.V., Grishin V.P., Salman E.R., Shashkov V.A. «Computer technology for an estimation of developments the epidemics of a smallpox». Magazine «Problem of especially dangerous infections », Release 1(93) 2007. Saratov; p. 16-21.


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